Caribbean and Pacific Hurricane Season 2006

Ally · 03-17-2006, 05:52 AM

All hurricane/typhoon warnings and forecasts will be posted on this thread. It is being kept seperate from the other severe weather warnings in order that everyone is kept aware and so they do not get lost amongst other posts. All information is supplied by NOAA/NHC. The season officially starts from June but as with most things, Mother Nature doesn't always run to a schedule.

Ally · 03-18-2006, 03:29 AM

Typhoon Larry - Warning current 18th March 2006.

Quote:

WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 155.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 155.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.6S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.2S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.7S 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.3S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.3S 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 17P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PER-
IPHERY OF A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN A LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z
AND 190900Z.//

NNNN

Ally · 03-18-2006, 07:43 AM

Update - Typhoon Larry becoming hurricane - 18th March 2006

Quote:

IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1238 UTC 18 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 970 hectopascals centred at
181200UTC near 17.2S 154.2E and moving westwards at 12 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly
direction.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 150 nm in
the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots with winds above 48 knots within 40nm and maximum
winds reaching 65 knots near the centre. Maximum winds increasing to 90 knots
near the centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas rising from very rough to
phenomenal over the next 24 hours on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
Near 17.6S 151.4E at 190000UTC with maximum winds 80 knots; and
Near 17.6S 148.4E at 191200UTC with maximum winds 90 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Ally · 03-18-2006, 01:47 PM

Updated information on Larry -

Quote:

IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1812 UTC 18 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 965 hectopascals centred at
181800UTC near 17.4S 152.8E and moving westwards at 14 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly
direction.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 150 nm in
the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots with winds above 48 knots within 40nm and maximum
winds reaching 70 knots near the centre. Maximum winds increasing to 90 knots
near the centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas rising from very rough to
phenomenal over the next 24 hours on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
Near 17.5S 149.9E at 190600UTC with maximum winds 80 knots; and
Near 17.5S 147.2E at 191800UTC with maximum winds 90 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Ally · 03-19-2006, 02:46 AM

19th March 2006 - update on Larry

Quote:

IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0642 UTC 19 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 935 hectopascals centred at 190600
UTC near 17.6S 149.7 and moving westwards at 13 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly
direction.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in
the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 150 nm in the southern semicircle increasing
to 250 nm during the next 24 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in
the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 60nm of the centre and
maximum winds reaching 90 knots near the centre. Maximum winds increasing to
about 110 knots near the centre in the next 12 hours. Seas very rough to
phenomenal on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 191800 UTC near 17.5S 147.0E with maximum winds 110 knots
At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.2E with maximum winds near 80 knots over land.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Ally · 03-19-2006, 06:11 AM

19th March 2006 - Western Australia

Quote:

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:AASBBBE999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0946UTC 19 MARCH 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical low with central pressure 1000 hpa located at 0900UTC within 30
nautical miles of
Latitude eleven decimal four degrees South [11.4S]
Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal five degrees East [118.5E]
moving east northeast at 4 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 90 nautical miles
in northern quadrants.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours
causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate
swell.

At 2100UTC 19 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 11.6 South 119.1 East
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0900UTC 20 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 12.2 South 118.8 East
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300 UTC March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

Ally · 03-19-2006, 10:52 AM

19th March 2006 - Australia Larry update

Quote:

IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1308 UTC 19 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 935 hectopascals centred at 191200
UTC near 17.5S 148.3 and moving westwards at 13 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to move in a general westerly direction.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in
the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 150 nm in the southern semicircle increasing
to 250 nm during the next 6 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in
the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 50nm of the centre and
maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre. Seas very rough to phenomenal
on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 200000 UTC near 17.5S 145.6E with maximum winds 100 knots
At 201200 UTC near 18.0S 142.6E with maximum winds near 60 knots over land.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Ally · 03-19-2006, 02:46 PM

19th March 2006 - Hurricane Larry update - NE Australia

Quote:

IDQ20008
PAN PAN
1 CORRECTED
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2007 UTC 19 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 920 hectopascals centred at 191800
UTC near 17.5S 147.0 and moving westwards at 14 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to move overland by 200000UTC with winds easing.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm
in the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 180 nm in the southern semicircle. Clockwise
winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots
within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre.
Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.0E overland with maximum winds 40 knots
At 201800 UTC near 18.1S 140.7E with winds below 35 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Ally · 03-19-2006, 02:47 PM

19th March 2006 - Tropical Cyclone Wati - Fiji

Quote:

IDQ20080
40:2:2:24:16S154E999:11:00
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Gale Warning 010 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/1304 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Wati [995hPa] centre was located near 15.9 South
163.2 East at 191200 UTC. Position poor.
Repeat position 15.9S 163.2E at 191200 UTC.
Cyclone moving west-southwest at 13 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to
45 knots in the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sectors
from northwest through north to east and within 60 miles of centre
elsewhere.

Forecast position near 16.7S 160.7E at 200000 UTC
and near 17.9S 158.0E at 201200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 009.

RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.

Ally · 03-19-2006, 02:54 PM

19th March 2006 - Hurricane Larry - Emergency Situation Warning - NE Australia

Quote:

IDDP0007
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Cape Tribulation to
Bowen are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:45am on Monday the 20th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Tribulation to Bowen, and extending inland to near Normanton.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch is current for the southeast coast of the Gulf of
Carpentaria between Burketown and the mouth of the Gilbert River.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry poses a VERY SERIOUS THREAT to life and property
in the warning area.

At 5.30 am AEST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 5 with central
pressure 915 hectopascals, was centred off the north tropical Queensland coast
near latitude 17.5 south and longitude 146.5 east, about 50 km east of
Innisfail. The cyclone is expected to continue to move in a general westerly
direction at 25 km/h and CROSS THE COAST within the next few hours.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY with EXTREME GUSTS of
approximately 290 km/hr should cross the coast near INNISFAIL between 7am and
9am this morning. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are already occurring along the exposed
coast between INGHAM and PORT DOUGLAS. GALES are being experienced along the
remainder of the exposed coast in the warning area. These winds will ease
rapidly later this morning as the cyclone moves inland.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Cardwell are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry will move further inland during the day. Although
the cyclone will gradually weaken, the destructive core of Larry will move
across the Atherton Tablelands this morning with gusts to 180 km/h. It will then
move further inland into the Northern Goldfields this afternoon with gusts to
140 km/h.

A preliminary flood warning has been issued for coastal rivers and streams
between Innisfail and Mackay.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 5, for 5.30 am AEST Monday
Central Pressure : 915 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 17.5 degrees south
longitude 146.5 degrees east

about 50 kilometres east of Innisfail

Recent Movement : West at 25 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour

People in the path of this VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very destructive
winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the
cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any
time. Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police or State Emergency
Service personnel.

People in the Gulf Country between Burketown and the Gilbert River Mouth should
consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next warning will be issued at 7am AEST Monday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.